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The World As We See It

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Introduction

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Table of Contents

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Global Markets Overview

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World Markets in 2018

Unlike 2017, which saw double-digit gains across much of the global equities universe, the U.S. is one of the few sources of positive stock returns this year, driven in part by rising corporate earnings.

Global bonds have had a challenging 2018. Rate hikes by the Fed pushed up yields on U.S. Treasuries and the prospect of an eventual exit from accommodative monetary policy in Europe and Japan has weighed on global sovereigns.

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Economy

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1. Global Growth Outlook
2. Global GDP Growth and Inflation
3. Global Consumer Price Inflation Forecasts
4. U.S. Employment Outlook
5. Global Purchasing Managers’ Indexes
6. Europe’s Measured Recovery Continues

Economy Table of Contents

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Global Growth Outlook

The story of 2017 was one of converging global growth potentially resulting in a virtuous circle.

While the U.S. economy is expanding, with annualized real GDP clocking in at 4.1% in the second quarter, other regions may see a slowdown in 2018. Brexit hangs over the UK and investors have concerns about the ability of the Eurozone to grow once loose monetary policy is removed. Despite the potential global benefits of U.S. tax reform, rising trade barriers and geopolitical tensions may create future economic headwinds.

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Global GDP Growth and Inflation

Tepid global growth in much of the developed world, along with the disinflationary effect of technology, has keep inflation below pre-crisis levels.

Should inflation remain moderate, central banks can likely continue along their path of policy normalization. A spike in prices, however, may cause an accelerated pace in hikes, thus possibly tamping down on future growth prospects.

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Global Consumer Price Inflation Forecasts

A rising U.S. dollar, along with continued technological innovation are two potentially disinflationary forces at play in the U.S. economy.

Conversely, for many countries, especially commodities importers, a rising dollar could accelerate domestic inflation.

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U.S. Employment Outlook

A rising U.S. dollar, along with continued technological innovation are two potentially disinflationary forces at play in the U.S. economy.

Conversely, for many countries, especially commodities importers, a rising dollar could accelerate domestic inflation.

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Global Purchasing Managers’ Indexes

What was hoped to be temporary, early-year softness in Eurozone economic data has proven more persistent, both in manufacturing and services.

While Europe and global PMIs have weakened, it is important to note that they remain in expansion territory.

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Europe’s Measured Recovery Continues

Optimists point to a declining unemployment rate and steady household consumption within the Eurozone as growth plods along.

A breakout, however, may not be plausible until companies show the confidence to tap local credit markets as bank loans are a major source of funding on the continent.

Without making (often debt-financed) capital investment, the European economy may find it difficult to increase productivity, a major ingredient of economic growth.

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Global Monetray Policy

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1. Monetary Policy: Tapering Has Begun
2. Rising Rates Supportive of U.S. Dollar

Global Monetary Policy Table of Contents

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Monetary Policy: Tapering Has Begun

The U.S. has commenced balance sheet tapering with the Fed expected to allow up to $50 billion per month in Treasuries and mortgages mature without reinvesting.

The ECB has announced it will cease buying new assets in December, although it plans to keep rates on hold at least through the summer of 2019.

It appears that only the Bank of Japan will remain active buyers after this year. However, the recent pace of balance sheet expansion has slowed.

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Rising Rates Supportive of U.S. Dollar

The stronger U.S. dollar is largely the function of higher interest rates relative to the rest of the world as foreign buyers seek exposure to the appreciating currency.

A rising dollar, however, can negatively impact U.S. exporters as their goods become more expensive for foreign buyers.

Historically, dollar rallies have punished emerging markets, especially those with a considerable U.S.-dollar denominated debt load.

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U.S. Equities

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Table of Contents

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U.S. Equities Slide

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U.S. Equities Slide

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U.S. Equities Slide

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International Equities

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1. Slide Title
2. Slide Title
3. Slide Title
4. Slide Title
5. Slide Title

Table of Contents

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International Equities

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International Equities

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International Equities

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International Equities

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International Equities

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Dividend Stocks

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1. Slide Title
2. Slide Title
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4. Slide Title

Table of Contents

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